Thai economy at risk of five major threats if US tariff talks fail, warns SCB EIC

Thailand’s economy could face five significant risks if it fails to negotiate a resolution with the United States regarding tariff issues by August 1.

The Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (SCB EIC) indicated that any delays in the negotiation process could become a turning point, severely impacting various sectors of the Thai economy, particularly if the US imposes higher reciprocal tariffs on Thailand compared to key competitors like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan.

The five major risks Thailand faces if talks fail are as follows.

  1. Export market share loss in the US
  2. Agricultural and livestock sectors at risk
  3. Domestic demand will weaken in the second half of the year
  4. Potential further rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Committee
  5. Government should carefully assess the pros and cons of market liberalisation

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